MIAMI, Florida (18 Oct 2005) -- Tropical Storm Wilma, the 21st named storm of a record-equaling Atlantic hurricane season, strengthened and may become an ''intense'' hurricane over the next two days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Wilma was about 210 miles (354 kilometers) east-northeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras border, a net move of 15 miles in 18 hours, according to an online advisory from the Hurricane Center at 8 a.m. Miami time. With sustained winds of near 70 mph, just 4 mph short of hurricane force, the storm was drifting northwestward and was forecast to strengthen and to move slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the next day. ''Everything is pointing at a hurricane, except the winds haven't made it yet,'' Jennifer Pralgo, a meteorologist at the center in Miami, said today in a telephone interview. ''The pressure's falling and it's getting better organized.'' Wilma probably will become an ''intense'' hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in coming days, the center said. That means the storm is likely to be at least a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, Pralgo said. Such a strengthening is ''typical of those hurricanes which commonly occurred in October during the 30s, 40s and 50s,'' the Hurricane Center said in a discussion note on its Web site. ''This is nothing new.'' Residents of western Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida peninsula, including the Florida Keys, were advised to monitor Wilma's progress. Caribbean Rainfall Danger The biggest danger associated with Wilma now is rainfall, Trisha Wallace, another meteorologist at the center in Miami, said today in a telephone interview. ''They've been getting rainfall for well over a week now in Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica and Puerto Rico,'' Wallace said. ''Flash-flooding and mudslides are a risk, especially over mountainous terrain, which all of those places have.'' Nicaragua and Honduras, which suffered flooding and mudslides this month associated with Hurricane Stan, are also experiencing some heavy rain, Wallace said. Hispaniola includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which last year were ravaged by flooding and mudslides brought on by rains in May and Tropical Storm Jeanne in September, killing thousands of people. Wilma's tropical-storm-force winds, of at least 39 mph, extended 125 miles from the system's center, according to the latest advisory. That's 55 miles farther than earlier today. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 centimeters) was forecast over the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Jamaica and southeastern Cuba, with isolated amounts of as much as 12 inches. Parts of Honduras were forecast to receive as much as 10 inches of rain. Cuba, Mexico, Florida In Cuba, more than 5,200 people were evacuated in three southeastern provinces because of rains brought on by Wilma, the official Cuban News Agency said on its Web site. The Cuban Meteorological Institute warned on its Web site of the potential danger Wilma presents to the Caribbean island. | | Mexico's Yucatan state yesterday raised its alert level to green, the second-lowest on a five-step scale, indicating there is ''low'' danger, the state's government said on its Web site. Wilma's long-range forecast has ''changed dramatically'' overnight, Wallace said. The Hurricane Center's five-day probability cone, which is subject to ''large variability,'' indicates Wilma may brush past western Cuba on Oct. 21, before making landfall in southwestern Florida late Oct. 22 or early Oct. 23. Yesterday, it showed Wilma entering the Gulf of Mexico on a more northerly track by Oct. 22. Oil Price Crude oil fell today as concern eased that Wilma would hit platforms and rigs in the Gulf, further disrupting production after earlier suspensions due to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Crude oil for November delivery fell 92 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $63.44 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:41 a.m. London time. The contract yesterday added 2.8 percent. Prices touched a record $70.85 a barrel Aug. 30 and are about 46 percent higher this year. There are six weeks left in this year's record-breaking June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season. Katrina, the costliest-ever U.S. natural disaster, slammed into Louisiana in August, killing about 1,250 people. Spain was hit this month by its first tropical cyclone ever. Busiest Since 1944 This year's Atlantic hurricane season has been the busiest since systematic aircraft reconnaissance of weather systems began in 1944. Until this year, that mark stood at 19, in 1995, though less reliable data indicate 1933 had 21 storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Should Wilma become a hurricane, as forecast, it would be the 12th of the year in the Atlantic basin, equaling the 1969 record. A tropical-storm warning was in effect in Honduras from the border with Nicaragua to Cabo Camaron. A hurricane watch and storm warning were in effect for the Cayman Islands, indicating such conditions are possible within 36 and 24 hours, respectively. All the letters of the alphabet except Q, U, X, Y and Z are used to name storms in alphabetical order. After Wilma, the storms will be named for letters in the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and so on. |
