PATTANI, Thailand (21 Feb 2005) -- Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's visit to his country's troubled southern provinces, Yala Pattani and Narathiwat, was labelled as a trip to "build bridges of understanding", but it ended up erecting higher fences between the government and the mostly Muslim local population. Dr Thaksin was re-elected in last month's vote with an overwhelming national majority, but he failed to win a single seat in the deep south. He said he was willing to listen to others' views, then announced new policies based on military repression and money — two tools that have failed in curbing the violence and winning the hearts and minds of the southerners. More than 600 people — government officials, security personnel, community leaders, teachers and ordinary people — have been killed in daily attacks since the violence escalated in January last year. A closer look at the pattern of the attacks shows an increased level of sophistication. The violence has escalated from drive-by shootings to car bombings, the first of which exploded on Thursday in Sungai Kolok near the Malaysian border. Yet, the prime minister appeared unbending as he put his own spin on a military plan to categorise the 1,580 villages in the three provinces as red, yellow or green, depending on the perceived level of cooperation with the insurgents. Dr Thaksin's plan is to withhold government funds from the 358 villages classified as red, which means they are pro-insurgency or under the control of the separatists. On the other hand, these villagers will receive the lion's share of the 12,000-strong military force due to be stationed permanently in the south soon. They will join the 20,000 troops already stationed there. Most analysts agree that the plan is a recipe for disaster as it adds fuel to a fiery bed of hatred. It also shows a myopic approach to the problem. Dr Thaksin seems to believe that the conflict is a wrestling match between him and the insurgency. He believes that if he applies more strength, he will knock the opponent down. He also believes in the power of money and that villagers will turn to his side with his threat to tighten the purse strings. This is not the case. The problem in the south is multi-faceted and complicated. At its root lies the deep-seated feeling of alienation and neglect experienced by the five million Muslims who form the majority in the area but the minority in a country that is overwhelmingly Buddhist. | | Dr Thaksin's plan to divide the villagers into "good" and "bad" will do nothing to improve the locals' perception that Bangkok is too far away (geographically, religiously and culturally). Withholding funds is even worse. Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat are among the poorest provinces in the kingdom, contributing only 3 per cent to the GDP. Cutting funds will not hurt the rebels, but it will further impoverish families trying to make a living with scant resources. The new policy is likely to fuel discontent, increase the polarisation between Muslim and non-Muslim and draw more people to the insurgency. Dr Thaksin, a well-travelled and well-read man, should understand that in dealing with ethnic and religious conflicts "inclusion and not exclusion" is the key. Collective punishment did not quell the intifada in Palestine. Similarly, military repression will not wipe out the insurgency in Thailand. In this respect, history and current world affairs offer much guidance. The British Army battled for decades with the Irish Revolutionary Army in Northern Ireland to no avail. A relative peace was only achieved through political dialogue started a few years ago. If Belfast is too far from Bangkok, Dr Thaksin should take notice of what is happening in the southern Philippines where a United States-backed Filipino army has struggled to stifle an Islamic insurgency for more than 12 years. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has opened talks with the Free Aceh Movement, which has been fighting for an Islamic state on the northernmost tip of Sumatra since 1976. If London, Manila and Jakarta have not managed to win their local wars after decades, what makes Dr Thaksin think that he will win his in four years? |
